UNIQA Group Online Presse-Center
  • Deutsch
  • English
  • UNIQA Group
    • UNIQA Group
    • UNIQA Austria
    • MyUNIQA
    • UNIQA Career
    • ArtUNIQA
    • ArchitekturUNIQA
    • UNIQA RealEstate
    • UNIQA Maklerservice
    • FinanceLife
    • Salzburger Landesversicherer
    • Raiffeisen Versicherung
  • Home
  • UNIQA Group
    • About the company
    • Management
    • UNIQA in Europe
    • Market environment
    • Contact
  • Investor Relations
    • IR News
    • Shares
    • Debt investors
    • Publications
    • Key figures
    • Corporate Governance
    • IR agenda
    • Annual General Meeting
    • Registration for IR newsletter
    • IR contact
  • News Centre
    • Press releases
    • Media library
    • Registration for press newsletter
    • Media contact
  • Corporate Responsibility
    • Sustainability Report
    • Decarbonisation
    • Value-based company management
    • Compliance
    • Risk management
    • Practical examples/sponsorship
    • Awards and certificates
    • Whisteblowing
  • Careers
    • Corporate culture
    • UNIQA Team
    • Careers in sales
    • Careers programmes
    • Vacancies
  • Services
    • Data protection
    • Contact
    • Ordering service
    • Downloads
    • Glossary
    • Links
    • RSS Feeds
    • Site map
  •  0
    • 0 Files in Lightbox
  • EN
    • Deutsch
    • English
    • Roman
    • Crnogorski
    • Srpski
  • News centre
    • News
      • Corporate
      • Products
      • International
      • Personal Data
      • Sponsoring
    • IR News
  • Media library
    • Basic press kit
    • Photos
    • Video
  • About us
    • Company profile
  • Media contact

Welcome

to our Online Press Center for media and journalists with our latest press releases and downloads.


Sign up

If you would like to receive our latest press releases automatically, just sign up for our mailing list here:

Mailing list

GTC

Dear Sir/Madam,

Welcome to our Press Center. May we express our pleasure at the fact that you have chosen to use the pool of information regarding our company and its products and services. This information and content is made available by UNIQA Group, Untere Donaustraße 21, A-1029 Vienna, Austria and we are more than willing to provide you with copy, photographic and film material for your reporting about our company. However, the employment of these services is subject to the proviso that you consent to the following terms of use.

The subsequent terms of use regulate the utilization of the content provided on the internet at http://press-uniqagroup.com/. Admission to the UNIQA Online Press Center, as well the functions and content to which it offers access, shall only take place in accordance with the aforementioned conditions. These include regulations related to data protection. Through the employment of the services and content provided, you offer confirmation of the fact that you have read and accepted the conditions.

An exclusive service for media journalists

Via the Press Center, you have access to our press releases and press download area. Utilization of the prepared content is free of charge. With the use of our Online Press Center, you offer an undertaking to only use the content and materials on offer for the purpose of your professional editorial and journalistic activities. Unless subject to a different agreement, basically the photographic material, data and information have been released solely for employment by journalists and press employees.

Right of use and purpose

Within the framework of a simple right of use, the content may only be used for the stated purpose to which the respective materials relate. As a rule, content may be downloaded free of charge and used within the scope of reporting for purposes comprised by press releases, articles in the print media, film and television reports, and publications in the online, mobile and multi-media. Additional utilization for commercial purposes of any description, or private advantage, in particular for advertising, is not permitted and expressly forbidden.

Content and material may be processed and altered, as long as its clear recognition is guaranteed and no changes are made to the content that might possibly result in a meaning other than that originally intended. The content may not be used in a form that distorts its meaning and alienation of the material is not permitted. This does not apply for separately marked content which due to legal restrictions must not be changed.

The right of use is limited to the period during which the content is available in the Press Center and in spatial terms, to the geographical area of the activities of our company. Use of the content in an objectionable or illegal context is not permitted and must desist.

Transfer and duplication

The transfer and/or duplication of the content to/for third parties is not allowed unless absolutely essential within the scope of the stated purpose. The electronic storage of pictorial data, data transfers and all other forms of duplication are only permitted in the course of standard production procedures and during employment that is lawful and in accordance with the intended use. You, or a third party, are forbidden to employ, store or download content as part of a service that is similar to, or replaces, that which we offer.

Copyright, personal rights and legal notice

All content, as well as the design itself, is protected by copyright and personal rights, registered trademark rights and other statutes in connection with intellectual property rights.

All the content contained in the Press Center such as copy, photographs, videos, audio files, documents and other content offered in the system are the property of our company, its licensers or external owners, who provide content and are named in the system. When photographs, films or other images are employed, the name of our company and if existent the proven copyright notice, and/or the name of the photographer or agency are to be given. This shall also apply to electronic publications.

We accept guarantee for the rights of third parties only in case of compliant handling.

Provision of service and content

We make every reasonable effort to ensure the constant provision of services and functions. However, we accept no liability for the availability of content, or access to the Online Press Center and its functionality.

The content provided is prepared without a warranty. We exclude all guarantees of completeness, satisfactory quality and suitability of the content on offer for a certain purpose. In addition, we retain the right to alter all the content contained in the Online Press Center without prior notice.

Content may contain links to other websites. We have no control over the web sites of third party providers and are not responsible for their content or any losses or damages that you may incur from the use of such third party provider websites.

Registration and access

Information that is employed within the scope of entry to the press mailing list or a registration for a press log-in must be made on the basis of correct and current data, correspond with the truth and be complete. If necessary, the information should be updated.

(You are obliged to maintain the secrecy of the access data provided to you and to provide immediate notice in the case of its loss. The security of this user identification is your responsibility. You shall be liable for any use of the services an content on offer and all actions undertaken with your user identification until you have informed us of its loss and/or supposed improper use.)

We retain the right to refuse acceptance into the press mailing list at our own discretion, to block registration to the press login and to refuse access to and/or the use of the services and content on offer.

Other conditions

We retain the right to alter these terms of use, or modify them to match the service, in order for example to account for changes in the legal framework or our offer. Therefore, we would request you to examine the terms of use at regular intervals. Alterations to the terms of use will be published directly on the page. At the latest, a change to the terms of use will be published on the date upon which it comes into effect and is not seen as backdated.

Should individual provisions in these terms of use become invalid or contain a loophole, then the provision in question will be replaced by an effective provision that approximates most closely to the original provision. The validity of the other provisions remains unaffected.

The terms of use are subject to the law of the Republic of Austria. If permitted, the seat of jurisdiction shall be Salzburg.

Specimen example

Should you prepare a report on the basis of the content provided, we would be very pleased if you would send us a free, specimen example of the publication to the following address or a link via e-mail.

UNIQA Group Communication
Untere Donaustraße 21
A-1029 Wien
E-Mail presse@uniqa.at

We trust that our press service will provide your work with the best possible support and look forward to your report.

??cookieinfo_popup.titel??

??cookieinfo_popup.text??

  • News centre /
  • News /
  • Corporate
  • Text
  • Images
  • Documents
09.09.2019

UNIQA Capital Markets Weekly

UNIQA Capital Markets Weekly
-->
This press release has: 1 Image 1 Document

Short text (367 Characters)Plain text

New ECB QE and its effects on interest rates
  • The ECB is expected to introduce new unconventional monetary policy measures.
  • First, we calculate the free-float of German government bonds, which has become very low.
  • In addition, we make use of recent evidence about QE effects on term premia to sketch monetary policy options.

Press release (7603 Characters)Plain text

 New ECB QE and its effects on interest rates

  • The ECB is expected to introduce new unconventional monetary policy measures.
  • First, we calculate the free-float of German government bonds, which has become very low.
  • In addition, we make use of recent evidence about QE effects on term premia to sketch monetary policy options.
Large scale asset purchases (LSAP), or “quantitative easing” (QE), are intended to decrease long-term yields and ease financing conditions thereby stimulating aggregate demand and bring inflation back in line with the central bank’s price stability objective. The ECB launched the asset purchase programme (APP) in January 2015, which initially pledged the purchase of 60 billion EUR of securities each month. The asset purchases ended in December 2018 when the portfolio had reached around 2.6 trillion EUR.

In the wake of the APP the government bond free-float fell measurably. Comparable to the free-float of stocks – the publicly held part of company shares, the bond free-float is the share which is held outside central banks. The calculation of the free-float of German government bonds is an approximation which rests on several assumptions (Coeure, 2018; Arslanalp and Tsuda, 2012) (1). Government bond holdings of foreign central banks and the Eurosystem under the public-sector purchase programme (PPSP) are subtracted from total outstanding general government bonds (central, state and local government bonds). World international reserves are from the IMF Currency Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserve database (IMF COFER). Claims in Euro assume that unallocated reserves are distributed similar to allocated reserves. From the Coordinated Portfolio Investment Survey (CPIS) country shares in the world Euro-denominated currency reserves can be inferred. The assumption is made that 80 % are government bonds. The decline of German general government (Bund) free-float is shown in Figure 1 (see pdf). Since the start of the ECB’s APP it has been falling below 20 % in our calculation.

Central bank asset purchases compress term premia by reducing the amount of duration risk borne by price-sensitive investors. Lower aggregate duration risk increases the risk-bearing capacity of investors and decreases the risk compensation; i. e. the term premia (Vayanos and Vila, 2009) (2). Term premia have become important for analyzing and projecting term structures of interest rates. In addition, term premia models help to understand the impact of QE on the yield environment.

Recent evidence suggest that the APP has compressed term premia significantly across maturities and flattened the yield curve (Eser et al., 2019) (3). The APP is found to have reduced the 10-year term premium by 95 basis points. The new estimate is very much consistent with a consensus, that was built in past years about a QE-impact around 100 basis points. For example, it was mentioned in a speech by ECB’s Peter Praet on 6th April 2017 about “calibrating unconventional monetary policy”. It even complies with early evidence from asset purchases of the US Federal Reserve suggesting a QE-impact 40 basis points for one trillion USD asset purchases (Williams, 2014) (4). Furthermore, these effects are persistent. The fading of the impact depends on the aging of the portfolio and the run-down of the portfolio that investors anticipate following the reinvestment phase. The length of the reinvestment period itself impacts term premia. The longer the reinvestment horizon the larger is the term premium impact.

The detailed results from Eser et al. (2019) are useful for quantifying the effects of additional rounds of asset purchases. The June macroeconomic projections of the ECB staff forecast real GDP growth of 1.2 % in 2019 and 1.4 % in 2020 and 2021. Inflation was projected at 1.3 %, 1.4 % and 1.6 for 2019-2021. Furthermore, the ECB staff provides ranges around the central projections for GDP and inflation. Figure 2 (see pdf) shows the central inflation projections as well as lower and upper bounds.

At the lower bound, year-over-year inflation would fall to 0.7 % on average (from 1.4 % in the central scenario) between H2 2019 and 2021. Accordingly, the lower bound for GDP growth implies average quarterly growth of 0.1 % (q/q); compared to 0.3 % in the central scenario. We assume that the lower bound represents a realistic downside risk scenario. Quarterly GDP growth slowed to 0.2 % in Q2 2019 and our real-time estimate for Q3 currently signals a further slowdown to 0.1 %. The inflation rate would fall short by 0.7 %-age points on average until 2021 (vis-à-vis the central projection), in turn, increasing the real Euro Area interest rates (adjusted for expected inflation) by an equivalent size. We can now make use of the above estimates for QE term premium effects to sketch monetary policy options. The 5-year and 10-year term premia decreased by 27 and 37 basis points (on average 32 basis points) per each trillion of asset purchases. To keep the real interest rate at the level of the central projection, in turn, a reduction by 70 basis points of the term premium would be required. Hence, it would imply additional asset purchases amounting to 2.2 trillion. Table 1 (see pdf) summarizes the arithmetic and adds an additional scenario (“cooling”) for which we assume a growth slowdown half as severe as the lower bound scenario.

(1) Coeure, B. (2018): “The Persistence and Signalling Power of Central Bank Asset Purchase Programmes”, presentation at NY City US Monetary Policy Forum, 23rd February 2018; Arslanalp, S. and T. Tsuda (2012): „Tracking Global Demand for Advanced        Economy Sovereign Debt“, IMF Working Paper 12/284
(2) Vayanos, D and J. Vila (2009): “A Preferred-Habitat Model of the Term Structure of Interest Rates, NBER Working Paper 15487
(3) Eser, F. W. Lemke, K. Nyholm, S. Radde and A. L. Vladu (2019): “Tracing the impact of the ECB’s Asset Purchase Programme on the Yield Curve”, European Central Bank, Working Paper No 2293
(4) Williams, J. C. (2014): „Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound. Putting Theory into Practice”, Hutchins Center on Fiscal and Monetary Policy, Brookings


Authors

Martin Ertl                                                Franz Xaver Zobl
Chief Economist                                      Economist
UNIQA Capital Markets GmbH               UNIQA Capital Markets GmbH

Disclaimer
This publication is neither a marketing document nor a financial analysis. It merely contains information on general economic data. Despite thorough research and the use of reliable data sources, we cannot be held responsible for the completeness, correctness, currentness or accuracy of the data provided in this publication.
Our analyses are based on public Information, which we consider to be reliable. However, we cannot provide a guarantee that the information is complete or accurate. We reserve the right to change our stated opinion at any time and without prior notice. The provided information in the present publication is not to be understood or used as a recommendation to purchase or sell a financial instrument or alternatively as an invitation to propose an offer. This publication should only be used for information purposes. It cannot replace a bespoke advisory service to an investor based on his / her individual circumstances such as risk appetite, knowledge and experience with financial instruments, investment targets and financial status. The present publication contains short-term market forecasts. Past performance is not a reliable indication for future performance.
Print page Send link
Get all contents of this news as .zip: Direct download Save to Lightbox

Images (1)

UNIQA Capital Markets Weekly
UNIQA Capital Markets Weekly
927 x 666 © UNIQA Research & Data
File size: 809,7 KB | .jpg
| | All sizes
UNIQA Capital Markets Weekly
UNIQA Capital Markets Weekly

© UNIQA Research & Data

Documents (1)

  • UNIQA Capital Markets Weekly
    .pdf | 415,4 KB © UNIQA Research & Data

UNIQA Capital Markets Weekly

UNIQA Capital Markets Weekly (. jpg )

© UNIQA Research & Data
Measures Size
927 x 666 809,7 KB
600 x 432 29,1 KB
x Loading
Direct download
Save to Lightbox
UNIQA Capital Markets Weekly

UNIQA Capital Markets Weekly

© UNIQA Research & Data
.pdf 415,4 KB
Direct Download
Save to Lightbox

© UNIQA Group 2021

  • Contact
  • Sitemap
  • Legal information
  • Imprint

page top

  • UNIQA Group - RSS Feed
  • Whatchado
  • Facebook
SIGN UP
If you would like to receive our latest press releases automatically, just sign up for our mailing list here:

Mailing list
ADDRESS
UNIQA Insurance Group AG
Untere Donaustraße 21
A-1029 Wien
Tel.: +43 (0) 50677-670
Fax: +43 (0) 50677-676
E-Mail
www.uniqagroup.com
www.uniqa.at
INFORMATION
GTC
Privacy Policy
Imprint
  • UNIQA Group
    • About the company
    • Management
    • UNIQA in Europe
    • Market environment
    • Contact
  • Investor Relations
    • IR News
    • Shares
    • Debt investors
    • Publications
    • Key figures
    • Corporate Governance
    • IR agenda
    • Annual General Meeting
    • Registration for IR newsletter
    • IR contact
  • News Centre
    • Press releases
    • Media library
    • Registration for press newsletter
    • Media contact
  • Corporate Responsibility
    • Value-based company management
    • Compliance
    • Risk management
    • Practical examples/sponsorship
    • Awards and certificates
  • Careers
    • Corporate culture
    • UNIQA Team
    • Careers in sales
    • Careers programmes
    • Vacancies
  • Services
    • Contact
    • Ordering service
    • Downloads
    • Glossary
    • Links
    • RSS Feeds
    • Site map
This website wants to use tracking and marketing cookies. We want to learn what you particularly like on this website. What is learned is intended to be used to show you personalized content and tailored advertising. I agree to the use of cookies or give my consent by continuing to use the website. You can find more information on the data protection information (such as the contact details of the data protection officer, the overview of any data recipients, my rights and the storage periods) and your right of withdrawal in our Privacy Policy.
Cookie Details
This is an overview of all the cookies used on this website.
Back