Meldung vom 30.01.2017

UNIQA Capital Markets Weekly

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  • USA: Q4 GDP dampened by international trade
  • Eurozone: Sentiment indicators suggest continuing cyclical momentum; Credit expanded steadily in December
  • CEE: Russia: Supply recovering while consumer demand keeps painting a bleak picture

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• Q4 GDP dampened by international trade

In Q4 2016, US GDP expanded by 1.9 % (q/q, annualized rate) following growth of 3.5 % in Q3 (Figure 1). The outcome was below Bloomberg consensus expectations (2.2 %) amid a larger than expected drag on growth from net exports while steady growth was recorded in the domestic economy. Personal consumption expenditure increased solidly by 2.5 % (after 3.0 % in Q3) and fixed investment rose by 4.2 % (following 0.1 % in Q3). Fixed investment was driven by residential investment (10.2 %), while investment in equipment rose by 3.1 % and structures fell by 5.0 %. Net export (exports minus imports) was a drag on GDP growth as exports fell by 4.3 % and imports rose by 8.3 %. Recent high-frequency data flow suggests a continuous, solid U.S. business cycle in Q1 2017.

• Sentiment indicators suggest continuing cyclical momentum.
• Credit expanded steadily in December.

Outcomes in Euro Area sentiment indicators remained solid in January after a common surge in December (Figure 2). The composite purchase manager index (PMI) for the total of the Euro Area came out at 54.3 after the previous rise to 54.4 in December. It is the highest level of the index since one year. Results for the manufacturing sector were particularly encouraging. The manufacturing PMI has been rising to a level that was registered for last time in 2011 (55.1 after 54.9 in the previous month). The services sub-index was released at 53.6 after 53.4 in the last month. On a country level, the French composite PMI rose to 53.8 (after 53.1) mainly driven by the increase in the services index. In Germany, the composite PMI fell from 55.2 to 54.7 amid a decrease in the services PMI (from 54.3 to 53.2) while the manufacturing indicator rose in January (from 55.6 to 56.5).

In addition, the most prominent German business survey, the ifo-business climate index, held up well in January. The main index realized at 109.8 after 111.0 in the last month although the outcome was below median expectations (111.3) mainly as the forward-looking expectations index declined (103.2 after 105.5).
The rise in the PMI indicates a strong acceleration of growth in real GDP during Q4 2016. According to a purely PMI-based GDP-tracker, Q4 GDP growth would have risen to 0.6 % (q/q) and 1.9 % (y/y) after quarterly growth of 0.4 % in the third quarter. This also indicates upside potential vis-à-vis the current consensus forecast among analysts reporting forecasts to Bloomberg (0.4 % q/q in Q4 2016). The January PMI release suggests continuing cyclical momentum in the Euro Area in the first month of 2017.
The credit sector provides increasing support to the Euro Area economy (Figure 3). We reported last week (UCM Weekly as of 23rd January) about improving loan demand in Q4 2016 (according to the bank lending survey) and decreasing real bank lending rates in Euro Area countries. Growth in total loans to non-financial corporates reached 2.0 % (y/y) in December 2016. Corporate lending had contracted between mid-2012 and end of 2015 and started to recover early last year. Household mortgage lending expanded by 2.7 % and consumer loans rose by 3.9 % (y/y) in December.

• Russia: Supply recovering while consumer demand keeps painting a bleak picture.

In Russia, supply indicators further improved in December while demand keeps lagging. Industrial production has been recovering rising by 3.2 % (y/y) after 2.7 % in the previous month. This was in line with the bounce in the manufacturing PMI indicator to a multi-year high and the manufacturing survey that is conducted by the Federal State Statistics Service (FSSS). However, expenditure data exhibits a sluggish recovery. The decline in real retail sales intensified again in December (-5.9 % y/y following -4.1 % in the previous month). Car sale have been recovering but remained weak in December (-1 % y/y). GDP details are available for Q3 2016, when real household consumption had declined by 3.1 % (y/y). The bleak picture of household demand is due to a continuing slow recovery in real household earnings. Real wages rose by 2.4 % (y/y), while real disposable income declined by -6.1 % in December. Bank lending to households has basically turned positive since Q4 (2.0 % y/y in November) after private credit had contracted for more than a year (Figure 4). In previous years, household lending had exhibited double-digit growth and was a main driver of private consumption. Bank credit to enterprises expanded by 2.7 % (y/y) in November of last year. Overall, December high-frequency data points towards the continuation of a slow economic recovery.
Russia’s labor market has been quite resilient during the recent recession. In December, the unemployment rate was 5.3 %, while employment growth remains low (0.6 % y/y).

Martin Ertl
Chief Economist
UNIQA Capital Markets GmbH

This publication is neither a marketing document nor a financial analysis. It merely contains information on general economic data. Despite thorough research and the use of reliable data sources, we cannot be held responsible for the completeness, correctness, currentness or accuracy of the data provided in this publication.
Our analyses are based on public Information, which we consider to be reliable. However, we cannot provide a guarantee that the information is complete or accurate. We reserve the right to change our stated opinion at any time and without prior notice. The provided information in the present publication is not to be understood or used as a recommendation to purchase or sell a financial instrument or alternatively as an invitation to propose an offer. This publication should only be used for information purposes. It cannot replace a bespoke advisory service to an investor based on his / her individual circumstances such as risk appetite, knowledge and experience with financial instruments, investment targets and financial status. The present publication contains short-term market forecasts. Past performance is not a reliable indication for future performance.

Information required pursuant to the Austrian Media Act
Publisher of this publication:
UNIQA Insurance Group AG
Untere Donaustraße 21, A-1029 Vienna, Austria
Media owner of this publication:
UNIQA Capital Markets GmbH
Untere Donaustraße 21, A-1029 Vienna, Austria
Management Board of UNIQA Capital Markets GmbH:
Mr. Arnd Muenker, Dr. Andreas Bertl, Mr. Franz Hagmann
UNIQA Capital Markets GmbH is constituted as a limited liability company; the media owner is licenced as an investment firm and regulated by the Austrian Financial Market Authority (FMA-Finanzmarktaufsicht).
Ownership structure of the media owner:
UNIQA Insurance Group AG is 100% owner of UNIQA Capital Markets GmbH.
Basic tendency of the content of this publication:
Information on general economic data.


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