Meldungsübersicht

The comparative economic development of Serbia and Kosovo

  • Serbia made comparably more economic progress than Kosovo, but both countries underperform with respect to income convergence in Eastern Europe
  • Recently, both countries had a solid recovery. Serbia‘s recovery is boosted by construction. The current GDP growth rate is likely not sustainable but the macro environment remains sound
  • Foreign remittances, rising wages and lending growth support consumption in Kosovo

What should we expect finance ministers to discuss at the Eurogroup meeting this week?

  • The upcoming Eurogroup meeting in Vienna intends to discuss inefficiencies in Euro Area labor and product markets to boost productivity
  • Productivity developments have been quite heterogeneous with adverse consequences for labor markets
  • Unemployment is high in international comparison and structurally weak labor markets remain a vital policy concern in some Euro Area member states
  • Labor market reforms have already been initiated targeting youth unemployment, long-term unemployment and labor market segmentation. However, effective implementation needs to be further strengthened

Russia’s economic resilience against sanctions

  • The Russian economy weathers financial sanctions amid macroeconomic stability supported by prudent fiscal and monetary policy
  • External debt is well covered by foreign currency reserves
  • The equilibrium real ruble exchange rate has been determined by the terms-of-trade due to oil price fluctuations. Recently, US sanctions might have loosened the exchange rate co-movement with the price of oil

 

Turkey: A typical emerging market crisis?

  • Political tensions with the US, lack of central bank independence and structural macro-economic vulnerabilities have contributed to a sell-off of the Turkish Lira
  • Low levels of reserve adequacy in combination with a structural current account deficit has made Turkey vulnerable to financial shocks
  • This combination is also present in South Africa and Ukraine, while the latter is already recovering from an emerging market crisis
  • Romania: The National Bank of Romania has, surprisingly, signaled a near end to its rate hiking cycle in spite of inflation above target.
  • Serbia: With economic growth accelerating and inflation contained, the National Bank of Serbia has no need to change its monetary policy stance.

Macroeconomics a decade after the Great Recession

  • What has changed during the last ten years
  • Modern macroeconomics under fire
  • Extensions of the baseline New Keynesian macro model
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Top Meldungen

UNIQA Capital Markets Weekly
      

The comparative economic development of Serbia and Kosovo

  • Serbia made comparably more economic progress than Kosovo, but both countries underperform with respect to income convergence in Eastern Europe
  • Recently, both countries had a solid recovery. Serbia‘s recovery is boosted by construction. The current GDP growth rate is likely not sustainable but the macro environment remains sound
  • Foreign remittances, rising wages and lending growth support consumption in Kosovo

UNIQA Capital Markets Weekly
      

What should we expect finance ministers to discuss at the Eurogroup meeting this week?

  • The upcoming Eurogroup meeting in Vienna intends to discuss inefficiencies in Euro Area labor and product markets to boost productivity
  • Productivity developments have been quite heterogeneous with adverse consequences for labor markets
  • Unemployment is high in international comparison and structurally weak labor markets remain a vital policy concern in some Euro Area member states
  • Labor market reforms have already been initiated targeting youth unemployment, long-term unemployment and labor market segmentation. However, effective implementation needs to be further strengthened

UNIQA Capital Markets Weekly
      

Russia’s economic resilience against sanctions

  • The Russian economy weathers financial sanctions amid macroeconomic stability supported by prudent fiscal and monetary policy
  • External debt is well covered by foreign currency reserves
  • The equilibrium real ruble exchange rate has been determined by the terms-of-trade due to oil price fluctuations. Recently, US sanctions might have loosened the exchange rate co-movement with the price of oil