Meldungsübersicht

Euro Area: the last piece of GDP-evidence to confirm a favorable year 2017.

  • Euro Area sustains the pace of its economic expansion: 0.6 % (q/q) GDP growth in Q4 2017.
  • In 2017 the Austrian economy expanded by 3.1 % (y/y) surpassing Euro Area economic growth by 0.6 %-points.

 

 CEE: the region shows continued growth momentum.

  • Hungary surprised to the upside with year-on-year growth at 4.8 % (seasonally adj.) in Q4 2017.
  • Romania was the fastest growing economy in 2017 with GDP growth at 6.9 % (y/y).

USA: The impatience of stock markets

  • We examine the link between wage growth and inflation.
  • Prices are rigid and adjust slowly.  A one %-age point rise in wages leads to 0.6 %-age points increase in prices of goods and services. It takes around one year for prices to fully adjust.

USA:

  • Solid domestic demand by year-end
  • No changes at Chair Yellen’s last FOMC

 Eurozone:

  • Buoyant growth continues in the Euro Area and Austria, while EA headline inflation drops to a temporary low
  • No interest rate hike this year (Draghi)

CEE Phillips Curves: dead or alive?

  • Output gaps indicate very clearly that the business cycle has accelerated.
  • Beveridge curves indicate tight labor markets in the Czech Republic (CZ) and Hungary (HU).
  • Unit Labor Cost growth present clear evidence of wage pressure in Romania (RO), Hungary (HU) and the Czech Republic (CZ) but not in Poland (PL) or the Euro Area (EA).
  • This is accompanied by average core inflation being more than double as high in CZ, HU and RO compared to the average rate in PL and EA.
  • Estimating CEE Phillips Curves show that the output gap effect is well and active. Though, time-varying estimates indicate a recent weakening.

CEE: Russia

  • Threat of further US sanctions downplayed by market participants
  • While the recovery has been weak, several factors support macroeconomic stability.

Global economy in full swing

  • President Trump kept a promise pushing a tax reform through the Congress. Its impact on the US economy remains a source of uncertainty.

Eurozone: The years of discontent come to an end

  • Besides supportive monetary policy and the positive external impetus, the labor market trends, bright sentiment and the credit sector recovery sustain the solid business cycle into 2018.

CEE: Goldilocks economics

  • We have upgraded the growth outlook for the CEE region in 2018 und included forecasts for 2019. Macroeconomic tailwind is set to persist over the projection horizon.

Central Banks: Confidence

  • In December, the US Fed’s economic projections outlined a stronger labor market and higher GDP growth.
  • Long-term confidence of the ECB to reach the inflation target is mitigated by a soft short-term inflation trajectory.

Romania: Second CEE central bank to raise key policy interest rates

  • The National Bank of Romania increased its key policy rate by 25 bp to 2 %.
  • We expect inflation to have reached 3 % in Q4 2017 (3.2 % in November); 0.3 %-points above the latest NBR’s projection (November).
  • Double digit growth of wages and unit labor costs in Q3 2017 have already indicated domestic price pressure to emerge.
  • The 3-months interbank interest rate (ROBOR) has picked up significantly since September.
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Top Meldungen

UNIQA Capital Markets Weekly
      

Euro Area: the last piece of GDP-evidence to confirm a favorable year 2017.

  • Euro Area sustains the pace of its economic expansion: 0.6 % (q/q) GDP growth in Q4 2017.
  • In 2017 the Austrian economy expanded by 3.1 % (y/y) surpassing Euro Area economic growth by 0.6 %-points.

 

 CEE: the region shows continued growth momentum.

  • Hungary surprised to the upside with year-on-year growth at 4.8 % (seasonally adj.) in Q4 2017.
  • Romania was the fastest growing economy in 2017 with GDP growth at 6.9 % (y/y).

UNIQA Capital Markets Weekly
      

USA: The impatience of stock markets

  • We examine the link between wage growth and inflation.
  • Prices are rigid and adjust slowly.  A one %-age point rise in wages leads to 0.6 %-age points increase in prices of goods and services. It takes around one year for prices to fully adjust.

UNIQA Capital Markets Weekly
      

USA:

  • Solid domestic demand by year-end
  • No changes at Chair Yellen’s last FOMC

 Eurozone:

  • Buoyant growth continues in the Euro Area and Austria, while EA headline inflation drops to a temporary low
  • No interest rate hike this year (Draghi)