Meldungsübersicht

Decoding Euro Area’s inflation: on oil prices, labor costs & profit shares

  • Final release shows Euro Area inflation at 1.7 % in 2018. Core inflation remained subdued at 1.0 % while rising energy prices drove inflation higher
  • Recent developments in oil prices as well as oil futures indicate energy price inflation to decline in 2019 and 2020
  • Wage growth has picked up gradually since 2017 being well-balanced among Euro Area economies and sectors
  • Profit shares are declining, thus, confidence in underlying inflationary pressures to emerge is rising

Quarterly Macroeconomic Outlook: Risks shift to the downside yet fundamentals remain in place

  • The global economic outlook remains constructive, though, with deteriorating expectations.
  • Short-term cyclical risks are titled to the downside in the Euro Area, yet, the fundamental factors underpinning the economic expansion remain in place.
  • Following a strong economic expansion in Austria, a pleasant slowdown is underway. Solid labor market conditions keep supporting consumer sentiment and private consumption. 
  • In CEE there are no signs of an abrupt growth slowdown. Economic growth has remained surprisingly resilient. Nevertheless, growth will slow down gradually over the medium-term.

Slowing growth – the dilemma of the ECB

  • Exit from QE has been confirmed, reinvestment of accumulated stock continues to provide accommodative monetary conditions.
  • The December macro projections include downward revisions in GDP growth and inflation.
  • Redemptions will be reinvested past the first increase in key interest rates. New ECB capital keys requires portfolio reallocation.

Equilibrium exchange rates and currency imbalances in CEE

  • Real exchange rates in CEE have appreciated strongly in the pre-crisis period, though, have mainly stagnated since then
  • Currency undervaluation has been used as an unconventional monetary policy measure in the Czech Republic
  • An estimate of the equilibrium real exchange rate shows that undervaluation was around 4 %
  • Any currency misalignments have been closed and the current economic outlook points towards a real appreciation until 2020
  • Sylva de Fluiter übernimmt mit 1. Jänner 2019 die Leitung der UNIQA Re AG in Zürich
  • Der bisherige UNIQA Re Chef Hans Uwe Müller geht in Pension
  • UNIQA Re koordiniert und gestaltet die internen und externen Rückversicherungsbeziehungen der Konzerngesellschaften der UNIQA Gruppe
Der Rückzug der Babyboomer und das lange Erwerbsleben der Nachgeborenen
  • In den aktuellen Bevölkerungsprognosen der Statistik Austria steigt die Altersabhängigkeit in den nächsten Jahren stark.
  • Frauen sollen ihr Erwerbsverhalten an jenes der Männer angleichen. Bei der Erwerbsbeteiligung soll sich Österreich in Zukunft an die Fersen eines internationalen Musterschülers heften.

 

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Top Meldungen

UNIQA Capital Markets Weekly
      

Decoding Euro Area’s inflation: on oil prices, labor costs & profit shares

  • Final release shows Euro Area inflation at 1.7 % in 2018. Core inflation remained subdued at 1.0 % while rising energy prices drove inflation higher
  • Recent developments in oil prices as well as oil futures indicate energy price inflation to decline in 2019 and 2020
  • Wage growth has picked up gradually since 2017 being well-balanced among Euro Area economies and sectors
  • Profit shares are declining, thus, confidence in underlying inflationary pressures to emerge is rising

UNIQA Capital Markets Weekly
      

Quarterly Macroeconomic Outlook: Risks shift to the downside yet fundamentals remain in place

  • The global economic outlook remains constructive, though, with deteriorating expectations.
  • Short-term cyclical risks are titled to the downside in the Euro Area, yet, the fundamental factors underpinning the economic expansion remain in place.
  • Following a strong economic expansion in Austria, a pleasant slowdown is underway. Solid labor market conditions keep supporting consumer sentiment and private consumption. 
  • In CEE there are no signs of an abrupt growth slowdown. Economic growth has remained surprisingly resilient. Nevertheless, growth will slow down gradually over the medium-term.

UNIQA Capital Markets Weekly
      

Slowing growth – the dilemma of the ECB

  • Exit from QE has been confirmed, reinvestment of accumulated stock continues to provide accommodative monetary conditions.
  • The December macro projections include downward revisions in GDP growth and inflation.
  • Redemptions will be reinvested past the first increase in key interest rates. New ECB capital keys requires portfolio reallocation.