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Decoding Euro Area’s inflation: on oil prices, labor costs & profit shares

  • Final release shows Euro Area inflation at 1.7 % in 2018. Core inflation remained subdued at 1.0 % while rising energy prices drove inflation higher
  • Recent developments in oil prices as well as oil futures indicate energy price inflation to decline in 2019 and 2020
  • Wage growth has picked up gradually since 2017 being well-balanced among Euro Area economies and sectors
  • Profit shares are declining, thus, confidence in underlying inflationary pressures to emerge is rising

Quarterly Macroeconomic Outlook: Risks shift to the downside yet fundamentals remain in place

  • The global economic outlook remains constructive, though, with deteriorating expectations.
  • Short-term cyclical risks are titled to the downside in the Euro Area, yet, the fundamental factors underpinning the economic expansion remain in place.
  • Following a strong economic expansion in Austria, a pleasant slowdown is underway. Solid labor market conditions keep supporting consumer sentiment and private consumption. 
  • In CEE there are no signs of an abrupt growth slowdown. Economic growth has remained surprisingly resilient. Nevertheless, growth will slow down gradually over the medium-term.

Slowing growth – the dilemma of the ECB

  • Exit from QE has been confirmed, reinvestment of accumulated stock continues to provide accommodative monetary conditions.
  • The December macro projections include downward revisions in GDP growth and inflation.
  • Redemptions will be reinvested past the first increase in key interest rates. New ECB capital keys requires portfolio reallocation.
Alexander Bockelmann, Chief Digital Officer und Vorstandsmitglied von UNIQA Österreich Versicherungen AG sowie von UNIQA International AG, wird auf eigenen Wunsch mit Ende Jänner 2019 aus den Unternehmen ausscheiden. Er übernimmt die Position des Chief IT Officer in der Konzernleitung der Schweizer Baloise Group.
Reiseversicherung – begehrtes online Produkt
  • Reiseversicherung abschließen
  • Über 90.000 Polizzen online in UNIQA Group in 2018
  • Vorsorgen ein Gebot der Stunde
  • Ergänzung zur staatlichen Pension
  • Ab 25 Euro schon dabei
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Top Meldungen

UNIQA Capital Markets Weekly
      

Decoding Euro Area’s inflation: on oil prices, labor costs & profit shares

  • Final release shows Euro Area inflation at 1.7 % in 2018. Core inflation remained subdued at 1.0 % while rising energy prices drove inflation higher
  • Recent developments in oil prices as well as oil futures indicate energy price inflation to decline in 2019 and 2020
  • Wage growth has picked up gradually since 2017 being well-balanced among Euro Area economies and sectors
  • Profit shares are declining, thus, confidence in underlying inflationary pressures to emerge is rising

UNIQA Capital Markets Weekly
      

Quarterly Macroeconomic Outlook: Risks shift to the downside yet fundamentals remain in place

  • The global economic outlook remains constructive, though, with deteriorating expectations.
  • Short-term cyclical risks are titled to the downside in the Euro Area, yet, the fundamental factors underpinning the economic expansion remain in place.
  • Following a strong economic expansion in Austria, a pleasant slowdown is underway. Solid labor market conditions keep supporting consumer sentiment and private consumption. 
  • In CEE there are no signs of an abrupt growth slowdown. Economic growth has remained surprisingly resilient. Nevertheless, growth will slow down gradually over the medium-term.